DESPITE major advances in diagnosis and treatment, there is still no vaccine and no cure for AIDS. An estimated 38,6-million people are now infected with HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, says the latest United Nations (UN) report.

Faced with a disease that threatens businesses from within and without, no executive would turn down a glimpse 20 years into the future to see what effect the pandemic had wrought on society. Since that's not possible, many are turning to the next best thing -- scenario planning.

"You can explore the outer envelope of possible futures -- the best of all possible futures if things go right and the worst if things go wrong," says SA's most famous scenario planner, Clem Sunter, who also heads the Anglo American Chairman's Fund.

According to the UN joint agency on HIV/AIDS, UNAIDS, SA is home to 5,5-million people infected with HIV.

AIDS-related deaths are climbing and there is no evidence that its spread is slowing. Against this backdrop, financial services group Metropolitan has completed a year-long scenario planning exercise exploring the possible impact of HIV on economic growth and development in SA.

"We want to inspire new thinking and stimulate discussion and action with our scenarios," says Metropolitan AIDS risk consultant Nathea Nicolay.

Metropolitan has produced four scenarios for 2025. These are based on different combinations of possible economic growth and "social collaboration", a measure of how South Africans tackle the disease.

In the worst-case "winter of discontent" scenario, based on economic contraction and low social collaboration, leadership is weak and self-serving; stigma and blame are rife; there is no behaviour change; and fake cures proliferate in a society filled with contradictory beliefs about the disease. Crime rates are high, with rampant sexual violence and drug abuse.

In this scenario, by 2025 there have been 8,9-million new HIV infections since 2005 and prevalence in the economically active adult population (aged 20-64) sits at 18%.

Life expectancy has dropped from 62 in 1995 to 50, there is falling gross domestic product (GDP), high unemployment, a shortage of skilled labour and reduced foreign investment. The domestic market has shrunk to basic goods and services.

In the "spring of hope" scenario, based on low economic growth but high social collaboration, there is idealistic but uncoordinated leadership, and powerful groups within civil society take the initiative. People infected with HIV are accepted and cared for, there is greater equality between the sexes, less gender-based violence and AIDS is a chronic, manageable disease.

In this scenario, 3,5-million new HIV infections have been averted and adult prevalence is about 11%. There is low GDP growth, reduced foreign investment, skilled people emigrate and government revenues fall. Demand for luxury goods is low, and the Human Development Index, life-expectancy and education hover at 2005 levels.

The "autumn of limited opportunity" scenario, based on high economic growth and low social collaboration, sees strong leadership, a deep gulf between the incomes of rich and poor, and little behaviour change.

There is plenty of donor money for HIV/AIDS treatment and care but prevention programmes are faltering. Stigma runs high and the AIDS response is "intellectualised", with plenty of academic research but not much application of study findings.

"One sees a lot of this right now with little trickle down of the research findings to those most in need," says Nicolay.

The autumn scenario sees SA's human development index fall below 2005 levels, despite high GDP growth. There is good infrastructure to support growth but skilled people are imported and local industries replaced with cheap foreign imports. The well-heeled of the "first economy" have money for retirement but there are ongoing retrenchments in the "second economy".

The most optimistic scenario is called "summer of hope". It describes a country in which strong collaborative leadership and high economic growth provide the impetus for large public-private partnerships to combat HIV/AIDS and implement effective prevention programmes. There are strong social networks, people take responsibility for their own health and there is widespread behaviour change. This scenario says an estimated 5,9-million new HIV infections would be averted between 2005 and 2025, as well as 2-million AIDS deaths.

"Only when public and private sectors collaborate with civil society do we get an effective response to AIDS," says Nicolay. She hopes these scenarios will prompt business to take action.

"There really is a lot big business can do." She cites recent changes to tax laws in which companies receive tax breaks on treatment provided.